ESCALATION SIGNALS INDEXVALIDATION
Awaiting validation
An index of signal intensity.
It is not the probability of war.
PILOT
POLAND · LITHUANIA · LATVIA · ESTONIA · REGION
Signals. Context. Perspective.
Escalation signals monitor for Poland and Central and Eastern Europe.
Building the observation baseline. Monitoring detects availability and content changes. Publishing the index requires verified signals.
OVER TIME
Change matters more than noise.
1007550250
Index history will be available after validationMissing data is not treated as zero.
30 days agoNo published assessmentsToday
Today’s score needs context.
Comparisons after the index is published—/100
No verified assessment
—/100
No verified assessment
—/100
No verified assessment
—/100
No verified assessment
Six perspectives. One picture.
Where do observations come from?
Transparent sources. Independent analysis.
Browse institutions and media that may provide signals. Read original statements on the publishers’ websites.
The source catalogue and technical monitoring are separate parts of the service.
Less browsing.
More understanding.
Filtered alerts, longer history and reports explaining what changes mean.
Why measure escalation signals?
A flood of headlines can make one incident look like a broad trend. Radar Ryzyka is designed to bring verified observations together, show what changed and make the evidence easier to assess. The aim is to support a calmer understanding of events, not to amplify fear.
- Several independent, concurrent signals carry more weight than repeated coverage of the same event.
- A rising score describes stronger confirmed signals. It does not mean that war is certain; missing data does not mean that conditions are safe.
The 0–100 scale describes signal intensity, not a percentage probability of conflict. A live score will be published only after model and data validation.